Forecasting the circum-Mediterranean firs (Abies spp., Pinaceae) distribution: an assessment of a threatened conifers’ group facing climate change in the twenty-first century

Abstract This study examines 10 different taxa within the genus Abies identified in circum-Mediterranean area: A. alba , borisii-regis, cephalonica, cilicica, nebrodensis, nordmanniana subsp. equi-trojani, nordmanniana, numidica, pinsapo var. marocana and . We assess potential distribution of these species Mediterranean Basin, most Central-Northern Europe Asia Minor through analysis 8 bioclimatic variables. First, (suitability area) was calculated with Biomod2 package for R using algorithms. Models were ensembled present period then projected into two climate change scenarios (an intermediate extreme) time slices (2041–2060 2081–2100) Global Circulation (GCMs). The showed an increase total suitable area under both forecasted scenarios. spp. appeared to be resilient against change, showing a latitudinal longitudinal migration trend response loss current habitats. A proposal assisted (managed relocation) is suggested as interesting alternative guarantee preservation endangered by promoting establishment new populations outside their historical area.